关键词: 风险评估 威胁频率 支持向量机 时间序列 核函数

Abstract:

There are two types of risk assessment methods： the quantitative and qualitative ones. Most risk assessment methods only give a qualitative account o f the network threat events without the quantitative value, and the evaluation resuits lack objectivity, dynamics and credibility. This paper presents a new quantitative assessment method, which is a predicting algorithm for network threat frequency based on SVM. A model of support vector regression machine is constructed, and the performance of the model is valida：ed based on simulation data. The SVM model predicts the threat frequency using a LAN＇s s detected data by IDS, compared with the detected data, the result shows that our method is feasible.

Key words: （;risk assessment, threat frequency, support vector machine-time sequence;kernel function）