本文在深入研究移动预测技术的基础上,分析已有分簇算法存在的诸多不足,提出了一种基于轨道预测的自适应分簇算法,根据节点的运动状态预测其将来的轨道，估算相邻节点间连接稳定性，并构造出与连接稳定度相关的网络拓扑图，最后用图着色技术对MANET中的节点进行分簇。该算法保持了分簇结构的稳定性,有效防止了通信的中断,弥补了已有分簇算法的不足。

This paper studies deeply the technology of mobility prediction, analyzes the shortcomings of the existing clustering algorithms, and presents an adaptive clustering algorithm based on orbit prediction in the mobile MANET. According to a node’s moving history, its future moving track can be predicted using the algorithm. Besides, the stability of the connections between adjacent nodes can be estimated, and then the network topology based on the connection stability can be constructed by the algorithm.Finally, all the nodes in MANET are divided into several clusters by the graph coloring technique. The algorithm maintains the stability for the clustering framework and effectively prevents the interruption of communications, thus compensates for the flaws of the previous clustering algorithms.