关键词: 关联分析, 多因素灰色模型, 残差补偿, 话务量

Abstract:

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of telephone traffic and the speed of modeling, aiming at that the current mobile telephone traffic forecasting is influenced by many factors, a multifactor grey traffic prediction model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) residual error compensation is proposed. In this model, the main factors affecting the traffic variables are determined by the grey correlation analysis method, and the multivariable grey model is used to do prediction. Then, the residual error sequence is predicted by the leastsquares SVM optimized by the particle swarm optimization so as to realize the residual error compensation. The experimental results show that the required samples of this prediction model are small, the model has the advantage of high accuracy, and the model provides a new forecasting tool for the telephone traffic network management.

Key words: correlation analysis;multifactor grey model;residual error compensation;traffic