关键词: 项目进度, 贝叶斯网络, 不确定性, 管理模型

Abstract:

According to the characteristics of software projects, this paper puts forward a schedule management model based on the Bayesian network. This Bayesian network model is built on the basis of introducing the PERT chart. And the probability parameters are determined by the experts’ judgment and experience .It can continually monitor and control the project, and identify the risks and uncertainty of the project, and perform reverse parameter learning. Whereby the irrational development progress is adjusted, and  the role of evolutionary optimization is achieved. The simulation experiment proves that this model has good schedule predicting ability coincided with the real cases.

Key words: project schedule;Bayesian network;uncertainty;management model