关键词: 因特网, 人数预测, 灰色马尔可夫, Verhulst模型, 预测精度

Abstract:

In order to predict the Internet access population accurately, a forecasting method based on Gray Markov Verhulst model is proposed. The method uses historical data to construct gray Verhulst model, gets the expression of time response series of the Internet access population by determining coefficients, and obtains the development sequences of the Internet access population in the near future. Based on the Markov chain, the sequence states are divided into three parts, the state probability and medium prediction value are obtained by determining the state transition matrix, and further the modification values of each sequence are obtained. Finally, the Internet access population from December 2006 to June 2012 is used as original data to establish the forecasting model so as to predict the number of Internet users from December 2012 to June 2014. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the gray Markov Verhulst forecasting model has fewer errors and better prediction precision, gives the fluctuation range and the probability of the prediction results, and provides the decisionmaking basis for network construction and management.                                               

Key words: Internet;population prediction;Gray Markov;Verhulst model;prediction accuracy