Abstract:

From the fault monitoring logs of the Open Availability system,the relationship between the number of its faults and the time interval is analyzed, and a NHPP model is established based on Bayes estimation. Based on prior knowledge, Bayes estimation method deduces the life distribution function of the Open Availability system. When the sampling is not done repeatedly, Bayes estimation makes the prior distribution of F(t) as DP(α,P0),so the posterior distribution of F(t) is easily computed and thus the NHPP model which could accurately reflect the influence of the time interval on the number of faults of the Open Availability system, is improve. Real monitoring logs are used in the experiment to evaluate the model. Simulation results validate the correctness and effectiveness of this model.

Key words: reliability assessment;Bayes estimation;NHPP Model;open availability system