Abstract:

Recently,our country has stepped into the critical period of social transformation,which makes the society a special historical period of frequent occurrence of mass incidents. If they are not taken properly,the situation will rapidly expand.Through analyzing the theoretical study results of sociology and psychology on parade,a movement model based on a simplified urban traffic network is proposed, and the Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm is adopted to predict parade flow trends.The simulation results using AnyLogic simulation software verify  the rationality of the model and the effectiveness of the key algorithm, which also provides some general rules of parade event development and technological support for handling such events.

Key words: parade;Cuckoo search algorithm;trend;AnyLogic simulation